Can I beat the bookies in Sports betting? did it ever happen before? Paul asked.
Answers:
Best Answer: Good answer Paul. Let me explain a little more clearly. First of all, you've got to know that only around 1% of folks who gamble on sports do so profitably. Can sports be beaten? Yes, but just your asking this question tells me that it is HIGHLY unlikely that you will ever be one of these people.
Back to what Paul was talking about. He said, "secret is to bet when you know the odds are generous".
In other words, you need to know when a sports line is FLAWED. You need to do the research of the teams, the conditions, the coaches, the players....SO MUCH.
Here's an example: An American football game with Team A vs. Team B. The lines show Team A -3 1/2. But in your research of the game, you strongly believe Team A should only be -2 1/2. So you bet on Team B since Team B is getting 1 more point than what they ought to be.
Same example, but this time Team A is -1 1/2 from the bookies. You still feel Team A should be -2 1/2, so instead you bet on Team A! You strongly feel they will win the game with more points than what the bookies are giving, so it's a strong bet.
If you do your research and figure out that Team A should be -2 1/2, and the bookies are putting Team A at -2 1/2, then you DON'T PLAY THAT GAME! Even if the bookies have it at -2 or -3, it's still not enough of a "FLAW" in the line to make betting on that game profitable.
Another example. Also American football. Teams C & D are playing. You determine Team C should be -13, but the bookies have it as -14. This time the line is so big, that you STILL might want to avoid playing this game! If the bookies had it at -15 or -16, then you might consider betting on Team D. If the line were -10 or -11, then you'd put some money on Team C.
This is what profitable betting is all about in sports. 99% of the people who bet on sports either just go with their "gut", or go with their favorite team, OR THEY FOOL THEMSELVES! They fool themselves into thinking that they actually CAN figure out lines better than the bookies, but in reality they can't.
One more VERY important point. Some people CAN do this well, but they STILL lose money. Why??? Because they lack discipline. Here's one final example to illustrate that point:
Team E vs. Team F. You figure Team E should be -6, but the bookies have it listed at -12!!! YOU KNOW YOU'RE RIGHT!!! You know there is something about this team that the bookies didn't consider. Perhaps you've got some inside information that the star running back is hurt and won't play!
What do you do?!?!? YOU POUNCE on this game! You call it a "LOCK". You bet heavy on Team F +12 since there is NO WAY that team could possibly lose by 12 points!!! IT'S A LOCK!!!
Guess what? It turns out you're right! The running back doesn't play and the line plummets to -6 just like you thought! But you already got your bet in at the bookies for -12! You're feeling fantastic, and you bet 75% of your bankroll because you had this "can't lose" wager!!!
Then at the game, Team E rallies without the star running back and wins by 17 points! You just decimated your bankroll, even though your thinking was 100% correct!
ANY TEAM can win or lose on ANY given day. If you ever believe in such a thing as a "lock", you'll go broke.
*****
OK - so this is WAY more than what you were looking for, I'm sure. Bottom line, sports betting CAN be beaten. It is HIGHLY unlikely that YOU will be able to beat it, however.
They definitely have the upper hand because if you win, you may decide to bet it all on the next week/game. They can afford to keep betting against you until you are either broke or go home. This is true in all forms of casino gambling however, not just sports gambling. In sports betting, there are two formats, both designed to give the house the edge. One you already mentioned, the spread. Have you even noticed though that the spread changes over time? This is because the number of people voting one way or the other changes, and the bookies slide the spread one way or the other to encourage the bets one way or another. If you place a bet with a spread, your bet remains the same, but future bets will have a different spread. Let's say for example you bet $x that team a will win and they are favored to win by 2, which means the spread is -2 against you. If the majority of people start betting on the same team as you, the spread may increase and those new betters will see -3, -4 or more, making it harder for them to win of course. On the contrary, if many begin to vote on the underdog, you will see the spread decrease, or even switch over. The entire system is designed to ensure that more betters end up on the losing side than on the winning. If successful, any betters that win are actually just sharing the money with the house that was lost by the majority, the losing bets. Of course this doesn't always work, but so long as it usually works, the house makes a bundle. The other system is odds betting, which is pretty self explanatory as to how the house ends up on top. PREDICTIONS FOR 30/07/2017
Booking Number:57CHK2G30/07/2017 11:27:28
Bonus
36,141.03 ₦
Pot. Winnings
126,493.59 ₦
Stake: ₦ 1,000.00
2 ODDS WINNING HOBBY
| Betslip | |
| Betslip ID | B957EEEZTZWEPC-331511 |
| Date | 29/07/2017 11:02:57 |
| Bet Type | Multiple |
| Detail | |
| Stakes | 450.00 ₦ |
| Bonus | 0.00 ₦ |
| Pot. Winnings | 1,045.80 ₦ |
| Cashout | |
| Event List |
| Event | Start Date | Type | U/O | Odds | Fixed | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trophee des Champions - Monaco - Psg | 29/07/2017 20:00:00 | 2 Trophy Winner | 0 | 1.40 | 1 - 2 |  | |
| International Champions Cup - Chelsea - Inter | 29/07/2017 12:35:00 | 12 & Under | 4.5 | 1.66 | 1 - 2 | |
Bet correctly registered on Bet9ja Database
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